Mortgaging our children’s future: Aussie ticking time bomb sparks fears should new GFC hit

AUSTRALIAN households are sitting on a ticking time bomb of debt, exposing the economy to risks in the event of another financial crisis, according to new analysis.

The Australian reports household debt in Australia is equal to 130 per cent of GDP, compared with an average across the advanced world of 78 per cent, according to Barclays chief economist Kieran Davies.

Household debt was at 116 per cent of GDP before the global financial crisis and held steady until 2013, when the property boom set it rising again.

Mr Davies said Australia’s debt levels were rising when those of other countries were falling, and the predicted rate cuts were likely to push borrowing even higher.

Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens warned of the dangers of taking on excessive debt last year, saying “we would surely be asking for trouble if we see a big step up from where we are”.

“The tricky thing for the Reserve Bank is that promoting leverage is the key channel for the transmission of lower interest rates through to the rest of the economy,” Mr Davies said.

The high popularity of real estate investment in Australia compared with other countries is being driven by the availability of negative gearing tax concessions and favourable capital gains tax treatment.

The level of household debt is higher now than at any other time in Australia’s history, with records going back to the 1850s. The level of bank lending as a share of GDP is now more than double the share of the previous peak, which was during the 1890s land boom.

Using Super to Buy First Home a 'Pressing National Issue' Says REIA

Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey appears to have taken the real estate industry lobby group's advice in suggesting people should be able to use their superannuation to buy their first homes, as the peak superannuation body urged caution for such an approach.

The Real Estate Institute of Australia outlined the radical idea in its budget submission to Mr Hockey last month, with the treasurer saying Australians ought to start thinking seriously about the way in which their super savings can be used in the future because people were working and living for longer.

"We are prepared to look at a diverse range of proposals to help young Australians buy their first home," Mr Hockey said, suggesting that super could be used for a deposit on a first home or job retraining.

His comments were quickly criticised by Labor and some economists, but REIA chief executive Amanda Lynch said using super to help pay for a first home could make housing more affordable and build retirement savings.

"We believe that owning a home is the biggest generator of long-term financial security for Australians and the earlier you can access the housing market, the more secure your retirement will be because most Australians aspire to have paid of their home before they retire," Ms Lynch said.

Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen rejected the suggestion, saying it would have the opposite effect.

"[The] plan would have the likely effect of not only undermining retirement incomes but also driving housing prices up further and making it harder for first-home buyers," he said.

Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia chief executive Pauline Vamos said the plan would benefit the rich far more than the poor.

"There are significant equity issues when it comes to allowing the release of concessionally taxed superannuation contributions for home equity," she said, referring to higher income earners paying 45 cents in the dollar in income tax but only 15 cents in the dollar on superannuation contributions.

They would be able use concessionally taxed super money to buy a house and then top up their super, again at a low tax rate.

"There significant equity issues when it comes to allowing the release of concessionally taxed superannuation contributions for home equity," she said.

But Ms Lynch stood by the proposal.

"The fact about buying a house is that you are actually saving all that equity and the compounding interest will be beneficial. To say that investing in superannuation, which is mainly skewed towards shares, is a safe proposition doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

"In the years since the GFC we have actually seen super being more of a financial risk than previously and a lot of people close to retirement have found their super balances have been dwindling."

Australian Dollar Tumbles on RBA Cash Rate Cut

The Australian dollar tumbled by more than one and a half cents on the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to cut the cash rate to a historic new low.

The local currency hit a fresh five-and-a-half year low to US76.57¢ on Tuesday afternoon, down from US78.16¢ just before the release. The reaction followed the central bank's decision to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 per cent after 18 months of holding the rate steady.

Despite the sharp fall in the Aussie dollar – nearly 20 per cent in the past six months – the Reserve Bank said the exchange rate remained high. 

"The Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar over recent months, though less so against a basket of currencies," the Reserve Bank said in its statement on monetary policy.

"It remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices. A lower exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy."

Market forecasts the exchange rate to continue to fall. On Commonwealth Bank of Australia figures, the local currency is expected to fall towards 73¢ by June this year, but the bank's senior currency strategist Elias Haddad said there was a risk the Australian dollar will fall even further and the bank will be revising its forecast.

"We expect a further downside movement here, not just against the US dollar but also on the crosses, due to narrowing interest rate, falling commodity prices and still unimpressive Chinese economic data," Mr Haddad said.

National Australia Bank will also be revising its forecast in light of Tuesday's tumble. Back in November last year the bank forecast the Australian dollar to hit US78¢ by the end of 2015. NAB global co-head of FX strategy Ray Attrill said the bank will be reviewing its forecast after the central bank releases its statement on monetary policy on Friday.

"The market already priced in the expectations of a rate cut, but the currency still lost. It shows the market is still prepared to sell," Mr Attrill said.

In an exclusive interview with The Australian Financial Review in December last year, Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens said an appropriate level for the Australian dollar would be US75¢.

Mr Attrill said the currency could be heading towards the US70¢ mark, given the fall in the commodity prices since December.

"You can argue, if US75¢ was about the right level in mid-December, and taking into account what's happened with commodity prices generally, maybe US70¢ is more appropriate," he said.

A batch of data fuelled RBA jitters earlier on Tuesday. The Australian dollar jumped by more than third of a cent to US78.30¢ after slightly better-than-expected economic data was released: building approvals slipped 3.3 per cent in December (better than the predictions of a 5 per cent slide) and trade deficit narrowed to $436 million in December, beating expectation of more than $850 million.

#AustralianDollar #RBA #interestrates

Property-Related Firms Rake in Revenue From Real Estate Boom Australia

Property exposed companies have reported "tremendously successful" and "best ever" results thanks to the booming housing market.

Developer Mirvac saw its full year profit spike 220 per cent to $447 million dollars.

Shareholders will receive a final dividend of 4.6 cents a share, taking the full year payout to 9 cents unfranked.

Strong residential sales lifted the result, with a total $1.2 billion of exchanged pre-sales contracts in hand and a slightly better than forecast 2,482 properties settled.

Chief executive Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz says the year has been "tremendously successful" and has set the company up for the future.

That future is very focused on building apartments to feed what it believes will continue to be high demand, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.

Chief investment officer Brett Draffin says the strong sales and price momentum seen over the past financial year is set to continue, albeit at a "slightly more moderate level."




He is not concerned about the flood of units that is expected to come onto the market in the near term.

"Fundamentally increased stock levels are insufficient to overcome the national undersupply, there is a high level of activity from offshore buyers in select locations and product types," he told investors.

"We expect demand volumes to continue to grow driven by tight rental vacancy population growth and a strengthening of the economy."

Mirvac has spent $248 million on new sites, two-thirds of these acquisitions were in NSW, less than a fifth were in Victoria, and the remainder in Queensland and Western Australia.

Half of the lots to be released this year are in Sydney, and almost all of them are units.

Mirvac believes the major acquisitions it has made will see residential development drive earnings from two years time onwards.
Mortgage broker boosts earnings

Mortgage broker Mortgage Choice has also benefitted from the fever that has swept the residential property market over the past year-and-a-half, boasting a best ever full-year result.

Full-year net profit rose 6 per cent to $19.85 million, and cash profit jumped 19 per cent to $18.7 million.

The final dividend was boosted to 8 cents a share, fully-franked.

The company says it "managed to capitalise on the industry tailwinds and significantly grow its core business."

The business wrote $12.2 billion in loan approvals, which is almost 20 per cent higher on the prior year, and the loan book rose to $47.4 billion.

Chief executive Michael Russell says it is the best result so far for the company.

"We have embraced the opportunities that the strong market has presented us with and managed to deliver some of our best financial results to date," he said.

The company says it is well on its way to achieving its goal of becoming a recognised diversified financial services provider.

"We will continue to focus on our growth and diversification moving forward."

Property Sydney: Chinese Investor Frenzy Adds Fuel to Inner-City Sydney Apartment Boom

THOUSANDS of Chinese investors piled into a property expo in Sydney’s Town Hall on the weekend as analysts tip overseas buyers will keep the city’s inner city apartment market booming for the next two years.

Close to 50 companies jockeyed for the attention of the cashed up Chinese buyers, with apartment projects being spruiked by development giants Greenland Holding Group, MAB Corporation and Frasers Property Australia

About 50 companies jockeyed for the attention of the cashed-up Chinese buyers, with apartment projects being spruiked by development giants Greenland Holding Group, MAB Corporation and Frasers Property Australia.

The property frenzy came as Sydney and Melbourne kicked off the spring auction season with strong results, posting clearance rates of 83.4 per cent and 75.3 per cent respectively on total sales of $545.7 million, according to preliminary figures released by Australian Property Monitors.

“The (auction) results were extraordinarily strong,” said APM senior economist Andrew Wilson. “The Sydney market just keeps rising. Certainly there is no sign of a waning of activity.”

He said a lot of the buyer ­action was driven by investors rather than owner-occupiers.

At the Sydney property expo Maggie Wang bought a house in Bellevue Hill, in Sydney’s east, for about $6m.

Ms Wang, who migrated three years ago, ran an IT and property development company in China and had recently started a wedding planner business in Australia. She said Chinese interest in Australian property was about more than just making money.

“People like the lifestyle, the country and the environment, it’s not just about investment,” Ms Wang said.

Another buyer, 26-year-old Crystal, bought a home in one of Sydney’s wealthiest suburbs, Vaucluse, for more than $5m, with plans to buy more Australian investment properties.

The expo also featured agencies, such as ABC World, which give Chinese investors advice on migrating to Australia through avenues such as the Significant Investor Visa. The visa, implemented by the former federal Labor government, allows foreigners who invest more than $5m in Australia the potential for permanent residency.

Black Diamondz director Monika Tu, who represents wealthy Chinese looking to buy Australian homes, said the visa’s introduction had led to a surge in interest for local trophy homes worth more than $5m.

Ms Tu said inquires to her agency from Chinese property hunters had increased by about 50 per cent this year.

Also at the expo, one of China’s largest developers, Greenland Holding Group, held expressions of interest for its second local project, the $200m ­Lucent apartment tower in North Sydney, while Singaporean-backed Frasers Property Australia marketed apartments at its $2 billion Central Park project at Sydney’s inner-city Chippendale.

The high investor demand for off-the-plan apartments is ­expected to keep Sydney’s inner-city market in boom mode for the next two years, according to forecaster BIS Shrapnel.

BIS Shrapnel said about 5800 apartments were under construction in Sydney while about 11,500 new apartments would be completed over the next three years — the biggest number in the city’s history. CBRE managing director of residential projects David Milton said the uplift in interest from Chinese investors allowed local apartment developments to stack up financially. 

Home Owners Forced to Take Super - Australia Mortgage

HOME owners have raided their superannuation funds of a record $100 million in last-ditch bids to avoid foreclosure, new government figures have shown.

The surge in mortgage-holders seeking emergency access to their savings has alarmed housing and social welfare groups, who warn many families are still struggling to meet loan repayments despite steep cuts in the interest rate

With distressed owners receiving an average of $15,250 each, there are also concerns some super accounts could be drained of more than a third of their value. The number of households in serious financial trouble has worsened despite mortgage lending rates falling about 1 per cent in the past six months and nearly 3 per cent since their peak in mid-2008.

Figures obtained by The Sun-Herald showed 6500 home owners were given emergency access to their super last financial year to prevent an imminent foreclosure.

A Commonwealth Department of Human Services report found $99.38 million was released, up 25 per cent on 2010-11 and well above the disbursements in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
It also marks the third year in a row that the number of people applying for, and being granted access to, their nest-egg has increased.

A campaign manager for Australians for Affordable Housing, Sarah Toohey, said years of house price growth had seen debt balloon and forced households to devote an unsustainable amount of income to meeting mortgage repayments.

''It's alarming and it shows that housing affordability is about more than just interest rates,'' she said.
''The sheer size of what people have to borrow to get into the housing market now really puts household finances under strain.'

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